Does Comprehensive Immigration Reform Stand a Chance in the House?

While it would be great if politicians did what they truly believed was best for our country, the reality of our representative democracy system of government is much simpler. Politicians represent only their constituents and do what the majority of their constituents want in order to be elected or win reelection. Ignore the will of your constituents and you will not be re-elected or even recalled as we recently experienced here in Colorado (two State Senators lost their seats in recall elections based on their support for restrictive gun legislation, which did not sit well with even many of their democratic ex-supporters).

So, what does this mean for the chances of comprehensive immigration reform becoming law? Let’s do some math. There are 435 members of Congress, 233 of these members are Republicans, 200 are Democratic (2 seats are currently vacant). Therefore, a majority of the House = roughly 433/2 = 217 votes (rounding up).  Of the 233 Republicans, only 24 represent districts where more than one quarter of the constituents are Hispanic. So, reaching 217 hinges on a number of questions:

• Can we assume that every Democratic member of the house will vote in favor of immigration reform? 
• Can we assume that Republicans with at least one quarter Hispanic constituents will support immigration reform?
• Are there districts that, regardless of Hispanic populations, will vote for (or against) immigration reform based on other interests such as business reliance on either undocumented or professional foreign labor (remember, the proposed legislation contains just as dramatic revisions to our professional employment immigration system as it does to our system for dealing with undocumented foreign nationals)

What does this all mean? Comprehensive Immigration Reform is a real possibility, but it is not a given.  The math reveals that the vote will be close (presuming we get to a vote). Stay tuned for further political musings regarding the chances of Comprehensive Immigration Reform!