H-1b Math: What Are My Chances of Winning the Lottery in 2018?
When asking what are my chances of winning the H-1b lottery, most lawyers will respond with a non-scientific answer based on their own rough historic success rate in the lottery, and predictions on the upcoming number of applications. We often do not go into the math because most of us (lawyers) were scared to death by our ineptitude in calculus and physics and consequently fled to law school instead. However, H-1b math is not rocket science, it simply requires calculating the overall probability of winning an event if you have one chance (for the normal lottery) and the probability of winning an event if you have two chances (for those who have a U.S. Master’s degree).
Let’s first review the rules before we start the math. There are 85,000 H-1b visas available each year; however, 20,000 are set aside for those with a U.S. Master’s degree or higher. As a result, there are actually two lotteries. First, there is a “Master’s CAP” lottery for all those individuals with a U.S. Master’s degree or higher. Master’s CAP applicants that are not selected in the first lottery get a second bite at the apple since they are then able to participate in the regular “H-1b CAP” lottery.
Now let’s delve into the math
If you have a U.S. Master’s Degree, the probability of securing a H-1b visa is:
1-[(1-P1) X (1-P2)]
P1 = the probability of winning the Master’s Cap (20,000/Number of Applicants)
P2 = the probability of winning the Regular Cap (65,000/((# of Master’s applicants – 20,000) + (# of Bachelor’s applicants)))
So, the long form formula looks like:
1 – [(1-(20,000/# of master’s applicant’s) X (1-65,000/((# of Master’s applicants – 20,000) + (# of Bachelor’s applicants))]
If you do not have a U.S. Master’s Degree, the probability is even simpler. It is simply the probability of the second event, which would be:
65,000/((# of Master’s applicants – 20,000) + (# of Bachelor’s applicants))
While the math is relatively easy, the difficult part is predicting the number of applicants. Predicting the number of U.S. Master’s CAP applicants is particularly difficult because USCIS does not release this data. They simply release the total number of H-1b applicants each year.
Below are two models run with these formulas that show your chances of winning the lottery given these two separate set of presumptions. By all means, if you think you have better insight into the number of applicants this coming year, plug those numbers in to see what the probabilities are.
PREDICTIVE MODELS
Model A (If Same Number of Applicants as Last Year): Based on 60,000 Master’s CAP applicants and 140,000 regular CAP applicants. This model presumes 200,000 total applicants, the same as last year, which I think is a bit high.
IF you have a Master’s degree, your chances are:
- 1 – [(1-(20,000/60,000)) X (1-65,000/(40,000 + 140,000)
- [Simplified version: 1-[(1-P1) X (1-P2)] = 1 – [.67 X .64] = 57% (U.S. Master’s degree)
If you have only a Bachelor’s degree, your chances are:
- 65,000/180,000 = 36% (Bachelor’s degree only).
So, in this context, a Master’s degree almost doubles your chances of receiving a H-1b.
Model B (Predicted Chances This Year): Based on 50,000 Master’s CAP applicants and 100,000 regular CAP applicants. This model predicts 150,000 total applicants, which I believe is more realistic since I anticipate demand to substantially decrease this year due to Trump’s attacks on the H-1b system and overall negative messaging towards immigration.
If you have a U.S. Master’s degree, you chances are:
- 1 – [(1-(20,000/50,000)) X (1-65,000/(30,000 + 100,000)
- Simplified version: 1-[(1-P1) X (1-P2)] = 1 – [.4 X .5] = 80% (U.S. Master’s degree).
If you have only a Bachelor’s degree, your chances are:
- 65,000/130,000 = 50% (Bachelor’s degree only).
As model B shows, if demand does decrease this year, the probability of receiving a H-1b visa for both applicants with U.S. Master’s degree and general applicants goes up substantially. Thus, the one silver lining (the only one I can think of) of Trump’s negative immigration rhetoric is that it may increase chances of receiving a H-1b visa this year.
If you are interested in filing a H-1b this year and want to learn more, call us at (303) 872-6985 or email us from our contact form here.