When asking what are my chances of winning the H-1b lottery, most lawyers will respond with a non-scientific answer based on their own rough historic success rate in the lottery, and predictions on the upcoming number of applications. We often do not go into the math because most of us (lawyers) were scared to death by our ineptitude in calculus and physics and consequently fled to law school instead. However, H-1b math is not rocket science, it simply requires calculating the overall probability of winning an event if you have one chance (for the normal lottery) and the probability of winning an event if you have two chances (for those who have a U.S. Master’s degree).

Let’s first review the rules before we start the math. There are 85,000 H-1b visas available each year; however, 20,000 are set aside for those with a U.S. Master’s degree or higher. As a result, there are actually two lotteries. First, there is a “Master’s CAP” lottery for all those individuals with a U.S. Master’s degree or higher. Master’s CAP applicants that are not selected in the first lottery get a second bite at the apple since they are then able to participate in the regular “H-1b CAP” lottery.

Now let’s delve into the math

If you have a U.S. Master’s Degree, the probability of securing a H-1b visa is:

1-[(1-P1) X (1-P2)]

P1 = the probability of winning the Master’s Cap (20,000/Number of Applicants)

P2 = the probability of winning the Regular Cap (65,000/((# of Master’s applicants – 20,000) + (# of Bachelor’s applicants)))

So, the long form formula looks like:

1 – [(1-(20,000/# of master’s applicant’s) X (1-65,000/((# of Master’s applicants – 20,000) + (# of Bachelor’s applicants))]

If you do not have a U.S. Master’s Degree, the probability is even simpler. It is simply the probability of the second event, which would be:

65,000/((# of Master’s applicants – 20,000) + (# of Bachelor’s applicants))

While the math is relatively easy, the difficult part is predicting the number of applicants. Predicting the number of U.S. Master’s CAP applicants is particularly difficult because USCIS does not release this data. They simply release the total number of H-1b applicants each year.

Below are two models run with these formulas that show your chances of winning the lottery given these two separate set of presumptions. By all means, if you think you have better insight into the number of applicants this coming year, plug those numbers in to see what the probabilities are.

PREDICTIVE MODELS

Model A (If Same Number of Applicants as Last Year): Based on 60,000 Master’s CAP applicants and 140,000 regular CAP applicants. This model presumes 200,000 total applicants, the same as last year, which I think is a bit high.

IF you have a Master’s degree, your chances are:

• 1 – [(1-(20,000/60,000)) X (1-65,000/(40,000 + 140,000)
• [Simplified version: 1-[(1-P1) X (1-P2)] = 1 – [.67 X .64] = 57% (U.S. Master’s degree)

If you have only a Bachelor’s degree, your chances are:

• 65,000/180,000 = 36% (Bachelor’s degree only).

So, in this context, a Master’s degree almost doubles your chances of receiving a H-1b.

Model B (Predicted Chances This Year): Based on 50,000 Master’s CAP applicants and 100,000 regular CAP applicants. This model predicts 150,000 total applicants, which I believe is more realistic since I anticipate demand to substantially decrease this year due to Trump’s attacks on the H-1b system and overall negative messaging towards immigration.

If you have a U.S. Master’s degree, you chances are:

• 1 – [(1-(20,000/50,000)) X (1-65,000/(30,000 + 100,000)
• Simplified version: 1-[(1-P1) X (1-P2)] = 1 – [.4 X .5] = 80% (U.S. Master’s degree).

If you have only a Bachelor’s degree, your chances are:

• 65,000/130,000 = 50% (Bachelor’s degree only).

As model B shows, if demand does decrease this year, the probability of receiving a H-1b visa for both applicants with U.S. Master’s degree and general applicants goes up substantially. Thus, the one silver lining (the only one I can think of) of Trump’s negative immigration rhetoric is that it may increase chances of receiving a H-1b visa this year.

If you are interested in filing a H-1b this year and want to learn more, call us at (303) 872-6985 or email us from our contact form here.

More info about H-1b visas.

Photo by Olu Eletu on Unsplash

The post H-1b Math: What Are My Chances of Winning the Lottery in 2018? appeared first on Shaftel Law.

Premium processing is a service provided by the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to ensure expedited processing of immigration petitions. For an additional filing fee of $1225, USCIS promises to make an initial decision on a case within 15 calendar days. If USCIS issues a request for evidence, they are allowed an additional 15 days to make a final decision. Without premium processing, adjudication times are dramatically longer, sometimes spanning beyond 6 months for some types of petitions.

After a temporary suspension of premium processing for most types of H-1b petitions, USCIS has resumed premium processing for the following types of H-1b petitions:

• All new petitions filed under the 2018 fiscal year H-1b cap. This includes petitions that were filed in April of 2017, and allow a beneficiary to begin working, upon approval, on October 1, 2017, the start of the 2018 fiscal year.
• Cap exempt petitions, which include petitions filed by:
  • An institution of higher education;
  • A nonprofit related to or affiliated with an institution of higher education; or
  • A nonprofit research or governmental research organization.
• Petitions filed by physicians under the Conrad 30 waiver program.

Premium processing still is not available for the following types of H-1b petitions:

• H-1b change of employer petitions:
  However, remember that a beneficiary of a correctly filed change of employer petition can still begin work for the new employer once the new petition is received by USCIS. This strategy still entails some risk and can create travel complications, so please speak with an attorney before utilizing this H-1b “portability” provision.
• H-1b extension of status petitions filed by the same employer:
  However, work permission is automatically extended as long as the application for extension is filed before the current H-1b period expires. USCIS has stated that they intend to resume premium processing for the above categories as well in the future, dependent upon their workloads.

Finally, USCIS may expedite a petition that is not eligible for premium processing if certain unusual circumstances apply. Here is more information on the criteria for expediting a petition.

To discuss the importance of premium processing in some situations, or to discuss any other immigration question, please feel free to call us at (303) 872-6985, or email us through our website here.

To learn more about H-1b petitions, visit our H-1b FAQ page.

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